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 PostPosted: Mon Aug 23, 2004 2:26 pm    Post subject: IF THE ARMENIANS WISH, THEY CAN CONQUER AZERBAIJAN Reply with quote Back to top


While in Baku They Are Hopeful That "in the Coming 25-30 Years There Will Be No State Called Armenia in the Southern Caucasus"

"íHow to liberate the occupied territories?í This question is likely to be put forward in each family of Azerbaijan. It is impossible to liberate the Nagorno Karabagh and the neighboring regions without military actions. There has been no case in the military history when the conquered territories were voluntarily liberated," the recent issue of Bakuís Zerkalo wrote. Ramiz Melikov, Press Speaker of Azeri Defense Minister, stated recently that "there will be no state called Armenia in the South Caucasus in the coming 25-30 years, as todayís Armenia was founded on the Azeri historical territories and in near future these lands will be controlled by Azerbaijan." Melikov didnít specify how they are going to conquer Armenia.

President Ilham Aliyev and the supreme military officials state in public that the Azeri army is more efficient than the Armenian one and if the peaceful negotiations yield no results, Azerbaijan will have to solve the issue of Nagorno Karabagh and the neighboring territories under Armeniaís control through military actions. Itís worth mentioning that Baku has been consistently trying to solve the issue through military actions since 1998, when the new stage of Karabagh struggle began.

Vladimir Kazimirov, Former Special Russian Ambassador of OSCE Minsk Group, wrote in one of his recent articles that the sides in conflict had many opportunities to stop the war, to set up ceasefire even in 1992. He states in his article that the Azeri side was violating the ceasefire mainly, hoping to solve the conflict through war, making all the Armenians leave the territory.

Kazimirov said that in June of 1992, there appeared an opportunity to stop the military actions on the front line and open the OSCE Minsk conference, but Abulfaz Elchibey put forward a precondition, i.e. the Armenians should leave Shushi and Lachin. On May 8 and 18 the Karabagh forces liberated Shushi and took control over Lachin corridor, securing land connection between Armenia and Karabagh.

Kazimirov, who implemented a mediatorís mission in the region for 47 times, recollects that in July, 1992 the Karabagh side agreed to signing ceasefire, but Elchibey was stubborn, and only in the spring of 1993, when the Karabagh forces took the control over Kelbajar, the pro-Turkish Baku government gave consent for ceasefire.

One shouldnít forget that Elchibey once promised to wash his feet in the Sevan waters. Itís worth mentioning that the Azeri armed forces conquered almost the half of Karabakhís territory in the summer of 1992.

In June of 1993, the Azeris and the Karabagh people began direct negotiations that helped make a ceasefire for a while. But Heydar Aliyev, who came to power in Baku through military revolution, wanted to regain the lost through military action. Again the Azeris began refusing the settlement of the Nagorno Karabagh conflict through negotiations. On July 23 the Karabagh forces took the control over Aghdam, the neighboring dwelling places, a number of hills of military meaning. Only after all these steps the Azeris stopped bombing Stepanakert.

Notwithstanding the obvious military benefits, the Karabagh side through the Russiansí mediatorial efforts again gave the consent to stop military actions and set up a ceasefire on July 24, the very next day after conquering Aghdam. Azerbaijan secured the ceasefire for several days, but it broke the agreement afterwards. As a result, the Karabagh forces took control over Fizuli, Jebrail and Kubatlun in the August of 1993.

Two secret meetings took place between Heydar Aliyev and Robe
rt Kocharian in Moscow in the autumn of 1993. In this period Aliyev was engaged in settling the problems of inner character, he made legal the results of the military-state revolution that took place several months ago and occupied the post of Azerbaijanís leader. Few days after the inauguration the Azeri armed forces began the military actions again. Hundreds of the Armenian soldiers were killed as a result of the large-scale attack in Kelbajarís direction in winter. But the failure didnít last long. The Karabagh forces began a large-scale attack and Azerbaijan lost at least 2000 soldiers in few days.

In the April of 1994, the Karabagh forces were ready to conquer Tartar, Bardan and Gianjan and reach Georgiaís border. The Azeri were made to set a ceasefire. It took place in Bishkek, May. This ceasefire is being secured till now with some violations.

By the way, the American Boston Globe daily dedicated a publication to the Nagorno Karabagh Issue. The reporter of the daily cites the words of Mamedov, Azeri Major, who was dwelling on the situation in Azerbaijan fighting against Armenia and Azerbaijan. He says:" If the Armenians wish, they can conquer the whole Azerbaijan."

The militant statements made by the Baku officials should be paid attention. As soon as Azerbaijan becomes certain about the possibility of settling the issue through applying arms, the war will begin. Anyway, the events of 1991-94 testify to this.

By Tatoul Hakobian

AZG Armenian Daily #144, 21/08/2004
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